Well, Tuesday will be the day when the Board of Supervisors has its vote on Ross Mirkarimi. If they do the right thing, and vote to reinstate him, I suspect that it will pretty much be the end of the story. Oh, there will be a few weeks of saber rattling by the hate mob as they threaten a recall and maybe even a bit of an effort to get one started. A few signatures might even be gathered, but I suspect the effort will pretty much fizzle as they find that it will be too much effort and too little chance for success.
Or, the Board of Supervisors will do what many expect, and vote to remove the Sheriff. That will require them to pretty much ignore the facts, which is what the mayor has wants them to do, as does the mob. It will mean that some might well find their future on the board in doubt. Contrary to the suggestion of some, a vote for Mirkarimi is not a sure career ender. In fact, for some, such as Jane Kim and Christine Olague, it will probably be the opposite that is true. Both are in progressive strongholds where a vote to remove may will be held against them at election time. This is especially true for Olague, who is in the hard position of being caught between Lee and his owners Brown and Pak, and the voters of District Five who support Ross. Then again, I know I will not be voting for her regardless of how she votes.
Likewise, Avalos may well alienate his base if he goes with removal, and will likely gain few, if any votes from the haters, who are mostly right wing anyway. The same is true for Campos and Mar, who have little to gain from voting with Lee, but perhaps, much to lose.
In any case, it is very likely that the courts will overturn any removal of Ross other than a recall. None of this matters to the haters, and it may have little effect on the Board of Supervisors in the short run. But it could prove an embarrassment as a court details just how weak the mayor’s case actually was.
The haters, including the mayor, have repeatedly beat the drum of “wife beater,” “spousal abuser,” and “batterer,” even though none of these have any basis in fact. At least they have stopped suggesting that Ross is likely to be another “Dan White.” I don’t know if they realize that was backfiring, and making them look silly, or if they realized that some people saw that this was very possibly an insane attempt to excuse a police officer killing Mirkarimi, claiming he thought the mayor’s life was in danger. Such a possible plot will only work if people don’t see through it ahead of time.
In any case, it will be over on Tuesday, or it will be just the beginning of the next round. We shall see what happens next…